CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z THU 09/10 - 06Z FRI 10/10 2003
ISSUED: 08/10 19:00Z
FORECASTER: HUGO

General thunderstorms are forecast across ALL OF EUROPE EXCEPT ENGLAND, S=ERN IRELAND, FRANCE & IBERIA

SYNOPSIS

Very unsettled across a large part of Europe except regions of Western Europe in which the Azores high will be ridging into...A long wave trough over parts of Central Europe in association with a surface area of low pressure will dominate the region with a complex double-low pressure feature over parts of Scandinavia and a filling surface low pressure moving into Scotland during the course of the period, the remnants of which belonging to hurricane Kate...Towards the latter stages of the forecast time frame the surface low pressure over central Europe is expected to deepen in association with favourable upper level conditions, while over Western parts of Europe the Azores will continue to dominate while Northern Britain sees possible severe gales in association with a significant Autumn low pressure (ex-hurricane Kate)...

DISCUSSION

...GEN RISK REGION (SEE TXT)...
The whole of the GEN RISK region is at risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity during the course of the forecast time in association with the unsettled conditions...Generally there is no specific region at a greater risk of seeing any significant convection and overal forecast soundings across the GEN RISK region show limited scope for any widespread activity...However due to the unsettled conditions some convective variables including deep layer shear (0-6KM), low level shear, (0-1KM) and helicity values, are quite high...The majority of the GEN RISK region is likely to experience deep layer shear values greater than 30KT with possibly values in excess of 60KT in places leading to intense shear values...Low level shear should generally exceed 20KT across the region...Helicity values in excess of 125m2/s2 could be experienced across Northern Britain along with helicity values exceeding 200m2/s2 on the Western & Eastern flanks of the long wave trough dominating through Central Europe...As a result of the above variables if any convection does occur there is scope that some of the convective activity may become severe and an update may be needed during the course of the Thursday depending on just how much convective activity can intiate in the first place...At the present time it shouldn't be too much...

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